Thursday, May 19, 2011

Stupider Than Expected

Every morning I wake up to the local AM station. They play Rock and Roll from the 50s 60s and 70s. At the top of the hour they broadcast the CNN national news feed followed by the local news.

Almost without exception, whenever the CNN economic segment includes some sort of statistical indicators, they are followed by "less than economists expected" or "more than economists expected" or "higher than economists expected" or "lower than economists expected".

Here are some questions to consider:

Just who are these economists that never expect anything, and why does CNN keep consulting them? Could it be that an economy that includes over 6 and a half billion variables is hard to predict? If it is so enigmatic, then why bother predicting anything at all? If the "experts" are wrong so often, why should we listen to them in the first place? Is it possible that their "predictions" are merely wishful thinking, or worse: is the media's indefatigable persistence in broadcasting their failed guesses an attempt to manipulate the economy itself?

Isn't it true that there is not enough printed cash in the banks corresponding to deposits? Isn't it true that bank runs are caused, in part, by lack of public confidence in being able to retrieve their money? If bank runs are no longer likely, can there exist a more or less equivalent chain of circumstances just as damaging? Isn't it also true that the media has been known to affect public opinion? Isn't it possible that the media, belonging overwhelmingly to a single political party, work tirelessly to bend your perception of the economy to their political ends?

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